【新唐人2012年7月11日讯】日前，解放军北海、南海舰队高层人事调动引发外界关注。原北海舰队政委王登平转任南海舰队政委，北海舰队航空兵政委白文奇兼任北海舰队政委，在南海乱局未解、瓦良格航空母舰服役在即的当口，外界分析，这次军中高层异动，很可能是胡锦涛准备在18前打一仗，来震慑周边小国的威胁，和彻底清洗江派腐败的势力。
王登平今年两会期间高调接受访问，有关他所谓“绝不让国土从我们手中丢失”的言论，被视为中共军方鹰派的标签。日前王登平转任南海舰队政委，他上面的表态，也屡屡被媒体翻出。
另外，原北海舰队航空兵政委兼任北海舰队政委，这也是北海舰队历史上首位有航空兵背景的主官。
曾在山东任教的历史学教授刘因全认为，在江泽民统治的岁月里，中国实行卖国政策，失去了很多土地，现在胡锦涛正式掌握了军权，他认为，这次军内高层异动，可能是准备打仗。
刘因全：“王登平出任南海政委，表示中国要在南海采取强硬措施。另外白文奇他原来是航空兵出生，现在担任北海舰队司令员，说明中共要把航空母舰要配备起来，因为航空母舰主要是用来载飞机、用于海上航空，所以中共有可能要加强海上力量，如果这样做呢，我想他可能是想打仗。”
刘因全还表示，在18大以前打一仗，是一个震慑周边小国威胁的机会。刘因全说，因为美国现在忙于大选，如果和越南这种与美国没有结盟的小国打仗，美国不会参与，很容易取胜。
刘因全：“打赢了以后有什么好处呢？就可以打一吓二，就是打了越南之后…可以和菲律宾和日本的谈判中，对方就会老老实实的把南海那个地方的南沙群岛,,，如果等到以后美国和越南结盟了再打就晚了，就对中国不利。”
刘因全还说，在18大前打一仗，对胡锦涛洗清自己的名声和清洗江派的腐败势力也很有好处。
刘因全：“另一个方面，通过这一仗可以让那些立了功的将军升迁，比如最近调到南海舰队去的王登平，让这些信得过的人立了战功以后，他们进入军委也能强化出生于平民的、立了战功的这些将领在中央中的地位，取代江泽民那些腐败将军。军队腐败搞好了之后，同时也可以影响地方，便于解决地方官员的腐败问题。”
《中国事务》杂志主编伍凡认为，最近东盟会议各国对南海的挑战，对中共造成很大的威胁。但是军队布署到什么程度，会不会打仗，大家拭目以待。
伍凡：“现在好像中共的军事行动在做准备，北海舰队这么调到南海舰队，这个人员调动，加强南海舰队的人员，并且在10号吧， 。”
王登平18岁参军，入伍42年，历任战士、军政治部干事、总政宣传部局长，周克玉上将秘书、海军装备部政委等职，直至海军北海舰队政委。 2002年王登平还作为舰队副指挥，率领“ 青岛”和“太仓”两舰500名官兵参加中国海军首次环球航行。 2002年，王登平环球航行归来，立即被晋升为海军少将，2011年晋升为海军中将军衔。
根据惯例，北海舰队政委兼任济南军区副政委，中将军衔。每年“八一”前后都有授衔仪式，预计，白文奇会被授予中将军衔。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/萧宇
Military Transactions for War?
Recent high-level personnel mobilization among the
North Sea and South Sea Fleets of the People’s Liberation Army, has attracted close attention from outside.
Wang Dengping, former political commissar of the North Sea
Fleet, was assigned to the same position in the South Sea Fleet;
Bai Wenqi, political commissar of the North Sea Fleet Air Force,
became political commissar of the North Sea Fleet as well.
With the South China Sea mess unsolved,
the Varyag aircraft carrier is about to go in service,
outside analysis of the high-level transaction in military terms,
could mean that Hu Jintao is ready to fight a battle before the 18th National Congress Conference.
This could be with a view to countering any threat from
surrounding countries, and to thoroughly clean out Jiang’s faction.
Wang Dengping had been interviewed in high profile during
the two sessions this year,
his so-called “never let the homeland lose in our hands",
Has become a motto of the Communist Party hawks faction.
Recently, Wang Dengping was transferred as
political commissar of the South Sea Fleet.
His above speeches were reported again by the media.
In addition, Bai Wenqi, former North Sea Fleet Air Force
Political Commissar is concurrently political commissar of the North Sea Fleet.
He is also the first officer with an aviation background
in the history of the North Sea Fleet.
Liu Yinquan, a former history professor in Shandong Province,
believes during Jiang Zemin’s ruling, he implemented a
traitorous policy, and lost a lot of land.
Now Hu Jintao formally grasps the military.
Liu thinks this high-level transaction within military,
may be preparation for a fight.
Liu Yinquan: “Wang Dengping became political commissar of
the South Sea Fleet, which shows China will take tough measures in the South Sea.
Bai Wenqi was originally in aviation, now he serves as
commander of the North Sea Fleet, indicating the CCP will be equipped with aircraft carriers.
Aircraft carriers are mainly used to carry aircraft at sea.
The CCP may try to strengthen the sea fleet power.
If so, I think (Hu) might want to have a fight."
Liu Yinquan also said that a battle before the 18th National
Congress Conference is an opportunity to shock peripheral countries.
Liu said the United States is now busy with the general election,
if (the CCP) had a fight with a small country like Vietnam which
has no alliance with the United States, the US would not participate, and it would be easy to win.
Liu Yinquan: “What are the benefits of winning?
It can threaten others. After a battle with Vietnam…
in negotiations with the Philippines and Japan,
the other party will behave and give the Spratly Islands in the South Sea to China.
If it (CCP) waits until the United States and Vietnam become
an alliance, it will be too late, This will not be good for China."
Liu Yinquan said, a war before the 18th National Congress
Conference will be very good for Hu Jintao to seek
forgiveness over his reputation and clean out Jiang ‘s faction.
Liu Yinquan: “In this battle, (Hu) could promote generals
with contributions.
For example, Wang Dengping recently transferred to
the South Sea Fleet.
After the generals Hu trusts made contributions,
they could enter the Central Military Commission
and consolidate the position of these generals born civilians,
he could then replace the corrupt generals of Jiang Zemin.
After army corruption is removed, it could affect local areas,
and it will be easy to solve the corruption of local officials."
Wu Fan, chief editor of Chinese Affairs magazine said
recent challenges from ASEAN meeting countries on the
South Sea, have become a great threat to the CCP.
To what extent the army will be deployed,
whether to fight or not, we will wait and see.
Wu Fan: “It seems the CCP’s military is preparing.
Transaction from the North Sea Fleet to the South Sea Fleet,
strengthening the staff of the South Sea Fleet.
On July 10, it will hold a sham naval battle in the East Sea.
The outside has given the CCP lots of pressure.”
Wang Dengping joined the army when 18. He has served
in the army for 42 years as a soldier,
the officer of the Army Political Department,
General of Political Propaganda Department,
the Secretary of General Zhou Keyu, political commissar of
the Armament Department of the Navy, and political commissar of the North Sea Fleet.
In 2002, Wang Dengping as deputy commander,
led two ships- Qingdao and Taicang,
and 500 officers and soldiers to participate in the first voyage
around the world of the Chinese Navy.
After returning, Wang Dengping was immediately promoted
to Rear Admiral. In 2011 he was promoted to Vice Admiral.
By convention, the political commissar of the North Sea Fleet
also serves as vice political commissar of Jinan Military Region, having the rank of vice admiral.
There will be a conferment ceremony annually on August 1.
It is expected that Bai Wenqi will be conferred the rank of Vice Admiral.
