【新唐人2012年7月10日讯】近来，中国经济增速持续放缓，于是大陆央行在一个月内两次降低利率，力图刺激发展。但各地方政府借机为房地产市场松绑，房价出现回升迹象。日前国务院总理温家宝再次强调，决不能让房价反弹。专家分析指出，大陆房地产问题的根源是中共的政治制度，虽然温家宝三令五申，但很难奏效。
温家宝7月7号在江苏调研时表示，房地产调控仍然处在关键时刻，在促进房价合理回归的同时，决不能让房价反弹。温家宝强调，要抑制投机和投资性需求，防止变相放松购房政策，对涉及违规骗取购房资格的企业、中介机构和个人，要严肃查处。这是近半年来，温家宝第5次强调房地产调控和房价的合理回归。
政治经济评论家草庵：“中国大陆在目前这个状况，温家宝在反复的谈这个问题，是因为中央的命令没有办法得到地方（政府）执行。因为在中国，现在完全是一个利益集团在把持这个政府。”
政治经济评论家草庵同时指出，其实中央也很清楚地方政府的额外收入基本都来自拍卖土地，如果真正打压过高的房价，地方政府就没办法维持。
草庵：“中国（中共）政府解决房地产的问题，必须要进行政治上的改革、体制上的改革。首先是税制上的改革，如果说中国政府不谈税制的改革，不抑制腐败、不进行公众监督的话，中央政府所有的调控都没办法执行下去。”
中国问题学家巩胜利也对《新唐人》分析了大陆房价居高不下的深层原因。他指出，政府主导的中国经济模式改变了市场经济的运行规则，政府既是裁判员，又是运动员，这样的经济模式自然矛盾重重，很难运转下去。
巩胜利：“（温家宝）已经没有办法使中国房地产再走下来了。因为中国房地产本身就不是市场经济，所以说，官方用政治、这个一统垄断的现象来治理这个市场，怎么可能达到这种效果？”
今年（2012年）5月中旬，温家宝谈到，要把宏观经济“稳增长”放在重要位置。紧接着，央行先后在6月8号和7月6号下调人民币存贷款基准利率，力图刺激经济，摆脱持续低迷状态，实现“稳增长”目标。
但“稳增长”显然和此前打压房地产泡沫的调控政策出现矛盾，当局陷入两难境地。伴随着央行的连续降息，各地方政府借机相继放松房市调控限购政策。6月份全中国100个城市新建住宅，平均价格出现环比轻微上涨，结束了连续9个月以来的下跌态势。民众担忧，房地产泡沫将会再度加大，一直居高不下的房价将会再次攀高。
对此，巩胜利认为，如果房价调控不下来，必然导致中国大陆出现新一轮的通货膨胀。
草庵则强调，现在中国经济面临近30年来最严峻的局面，最坏情况已经开始出现。
草庵：“在这点上，实际上国际上跟国内都有一个共识。就是如果中国不进行政改，特别是5年之内不进行彻底的改变的话，整个中国将会亡国。当然他们也提出来，如果中国不改的话，更大的可能是亡党，中共就会彻底倒台。”
另据报导，上个星期，有望在中共18大上接替温家宝出任国务院总理的李克强，也曾发表讲话，他强调，要稳定房地产市场调控政策，巩固调控成果。
采访/刘惠 编辑/李谦 后制/李若琳
5th Time in 6 Months: Wen Jiabao Talks House Price Control
China’s economic growth has continued to slow down.
Within a month, the mainland central bank twice lowered
interest rates to boost economy.
Local authorities of the Chinese Communist Party
took the opportunity to relax property market restrictions,
and house prices began to show signs of rebounding.
CCP Premier Wen Jiabao recently re-emphasized
a desperate curbing of house price’s upward trend
Experts say, the root of China’s real estate problem is
the CCP’s political establishment.
That can explain why the central control policy could not
be carried through in spite of Wen Jiabao’s repeated orders.
On July 7 on his inspection in Jiangsu Province, Wen Jiabao
said that the stage still remains crucial for real estate control.
Property prices shall in no way be allowed to rebound
while being promoted so as to achieve the goal of reasonable house pricing.
Wen stressed curbing speculation and investment demand,
to avoid disguised loosening up of house purchase policy.
Severe punishment shall be imposed on enterprises,
intermediary institutions and individuals that are implicated in
defrauding the entitlement to purchase properties, said Wen.
This was the 5th time over the recent six months that
Wen has stressed the control and reasonable pricing of China’s property market.
Cao’an (Political & economic commentator): “Wen Jiabao’s
repetitive talk about this issue
is because the central authorities’ policies haven’t been
carried through at the local-level.
Now in China, the government is completely controlled by
interest groups."
Cao’an says the CCP’s central authorities clearly know that
land auction is the main source of local extra-budget revenue.
If Beijing truly puts the pressure on over excessively high
house prices, local authorities will have no way to sustain, he thinks.
Cao’an: “To solve real estate problems, the Chinese
government must carry out political and institutional reforms.
Firstly, reforming of the tax system. Without it,
without curbing corruption, and realization of public scrutiny,
all central control policies can’t possibly get
carried through.”
Expert on China, Gong Shengli, analyzes the underlying
causes of China’s high property prices.
The government-led economic model has changed
the rules of the marketing.
The government became both the referee and the athlete.
Such an economic model is naturally contradictory and
hard to maintain or manage well.
Gong Shengli: “(Wen) has no way to keep China’s
real estate going, as it isn’t a market-based economy.
So how could it be successful when it has used political
monopoly as a way to control the market ? “
In mid-May,Wen Jiabao claimed to prioritize the
“steady growth" of the macro-economy.
Then, the central bank cut its bank reserve ratios in
June and July,
trying to stimulate the economy,
getting rid of a long-term downturn.
However, the goal of “steady growth" is apparently against
the previous policy of suppressing the real estate bubble.
The CCP authorities have stepped into a dilemma.
Along with the central banks interest rates cuts,
local authorities relaxed house purchase restrictions.
In June, the average new residential sale prices in 100 cities
slightly rose month on month, ending the 9-month downward trend.
The public worry that the housing bubble will
keep growing, which will fuel high house prices.
Gong Shengli thinks the failure of housing price control
will trigger a new round of inflation in China.
Cao’an notes that China’s economy faces the most serious
situation in the last 30 years. The worst-case scenario has begun to emerge.
Cao’an: “In this regard, there is a common view held
in China and overseas.
That is, without implementing political reform,
within five years, China will perish.
And more likely, they said, is the collapse of the CCP."
Last week, Li Keqiang, the likely successor to Wen Jiabao
as the CCP’s Premier at the upcoming 18th Congress,
reportedly stressed keeping the real estate
market control stabilized.
