【新唐人2012年6月25日讯】如今500米以上的高层建筑在中国大陆已经司空见惯，但各省市仍然势头不减，继续攀比兴建摩天大楼。先是原高606米的武汉绿地中心，准备“拔高”30米，成为“中国第一高楼”。随后湖南长沙宣布，将兴建世界第一高楼“天空城市”，比著名的迪拜哈利法塔还高50层。不少民众担心，“摩天大楼热”会引发更多的安全隐患。有评论指出，“摩天大楼热”是中国经济崩溃即将来临的前奏。
截至目前，中国在建的摩天大楼总数已经超过200座。南京有450米的紫峰大厦，广州东塔的高度也达到了530 米，武汉绿地中心、深圳平安金融中心两座高楼的高度分别达到了606米和660米。报导说，预计未来3年，中国大陆平均每5天就有一座摩天大楼封顶。而据测算，5年后中国将拥有800座摩天高楼，相当于美国今天的4倍。其中80%将建在经济不发达的内陆地区。
“摩天楼专业户”绿地集团透露，地标性建筑，不是房地商想做，而是政府想做。
著名学者、中国财经独立评论家巩胜利：“中国在搞形象工程，各个城市各个省之间都在抓形象工程，摩天大楼简单的说，基本上就是说形象工程的产物。 因为党政官员没有政绩怎么做下去呢？”
从目前媒体公布的长沙“天空城市”规划来看，全部建设周期仅为7个月，而现在世界第一高楼—-迪拜的哈利法塔则花了六年才建成。网民对中国摩天大楼的安全担忧不已。
另外，高层建筑的火灾救援也是一个无法解决的难题。北京市消防局负责人指出，一旦发生火灾，高层逃生的可能性几乎为零。2010年11月15号，上海静安区28层高的胶州教师公寓楼发生火灾导致至少53人丧生。
中国财经独立评论家巩胜利：“摩天大楼啊，它第一首先要设计合理，第二，建筑工期一定要保障，比如它水泥凝固度要一定时间，还有钢筋质量一定要好，那比如这些不能保证，后患是无穷的。”
外资机构研究表明，过去140年来，摩天大楼热却是经济崩溃即将来临的一个可靠的指标。纽约的克莱斯勒和帝国大厦建成不久，就发生了纽约股市崩盘和1929年经济大萧条。近期则是迪拜的那些摩天大楼，都是在迪拜陷入经济危机之前不久建成的。
今年以来大陆宏观经济出现疲软迹象，似乎对此也有所警示。官方数据显示，今年1至5月财政收入同比增幅显着回落。 5月份中国制造业采购经理人指数“PMI”为50.4%，创5个月以来新低﹔生产者物价指数“PPI”同比下跌1.4%，为2009年12月以来最低点。
巩胜利：“13多亿人口的国家它的资本大量的集中在国有企业手中。而且像中国这么多人，这么多产业，找不到突破口，集中到某房地产啊，形象工程啊，或者是某个区域的最高建筑啊，光集中到这样方面投资，你想想看，这样的盲点就相当多相当多了。”
据统计，全球在建的摩天大楼，其中87%在中国。巩胜利认为，要不了多久，中国的摩天大楼就会显露致命的弊端，而且它的结局恐怕会惊醒全世界。
采访/刘惠 编辑/许旻 后制/钟元
Skyscrapers Herald China’s Economic Crash
Nowadays, Skyscrapers above 500 meter height
have become commonplace in China.
However, cities’ competitiveness to build higher and higher
skyscrapers continued.
The 606-meter-high Wuhan Greenland Centre is expected
to be increased by 30 meters to become China’s tallest building.
Recently Changsha city, Hunan announced building the world’s
tallest skyscraper;50 floors more than Burj Khalifa, Dubai.
People worried that skyscraper fever would lead to
more safety risks.
Experts said that China’s skyscrapers craze
may indicate an economic crash.
More than 200 skyscrapers are now
under construction in China.
Nanjing Zifeng Tower reached 450 meters height,
Guangzhou East Tower will be at 530 meters.
Wuhan Greenland Centre will be at 606 meters and Shenzhen
Ping An Finance Center is expected to be at 660 meters.
Reports said that China would get a new skyscraper
every five days for the next three years.
Research found that in five years time,
China will have 800 skyscrapers.
Equivalent to four times the total number of
skyscrapers in the US.
About 80% of new buildings will be built on
underdeveloped areas in China.
Greenland Group revealed that property businessmen
don’t want to do landmark buildings, but the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) does.
Gong Shengli, China financial independent commentator said:
“China is engaged in image projects in cities and provinces.
Speeded up building of Skyscrapers is due to image projects.
Without remarkable achievements, how the CCP officials
continue to justify their jobs?”
According to reports, Changsha’s Sky City project is due
for completion within 7 months.
However, the world’s tallest building Burj Khalifa in Dubai
took 6 years to complete.
Netizens questioned the safety of China’s skyscrapers.
Fire fighting and rescue in Skyscrapers is another problem.
A Beijing fire station official pointed out that once on fire,
chances of escaping from high-level floors is almost zero.
On Nov.15th 2010, a 28-storey teachers’ apartment
in Jingan District in Shanghai was on fire, 53 died.
Gong Shengli, “For skyscrapers, first, it needs rational design,
second, it must guarantee sufficient time to build well.
For example, cement solidification needs a certain time,
reinforced concrete quality must be good.
If these can’t be achieved, the future problems are countless.”
Research found over last 140 years, a frenzy of skyscrapers
is also a reliable indicator of an impending financial crash.
The Chrysler Building and Empire State Building in New York
were completed just before the Stock Market Crash in 1929.
Recently, those skyscrapers in Dubai were built just before
the Great Recession.
China’s macro-economy tends shows weakness in recent years,
which seems like a warning.
Official statistics show fiscal revenue increase was down,
compared to the January-May period in 2011.
In May, manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Index
(PMI) was 50.4%, the lowest point in the first months of 2012.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 1.4% in May from last year,
a drop to the lowest point since Dec. 2009.
Gong Shengli, “Being a country of 1.3 billion populations,
its capital is gathered in state owned capital.
China has so many citizens and industries and no breakthrough.
It can only concentrate on real estate, image projects or
tallest buildings.
To invest in such way, if you think about it,
such cases are commonplace.”
According to a survey, 87% of global skyscrapers
under construction are in China.
Gong Shengli believes that, soon, China’s skyscrapers
will be reveal fatal flaws. The outcomes perhaps will shock the world.
