【新唐人2012年6月25日訊】如今500米以上的高層建築在中國大陸已經司空見慣，但各省市仍然勢頭不減，繼續攀比興建摩天大樓。先是原高606米的武漢綠地中心，準備「拔高」30米，成為「中國第一高樓」。隨後湖南長沙宣佈，將興建世界第一高樓「天空城市」，比著名的迪拜哈利法塔還高50層。不少民眾擔心，「摩天大樓熱」會引發更多的安全隱患。有評論指出，「摩天大樓熱」是中國經濟崩潰即將來臨的前奏。
截至目前，中國在建的摩天大樓總數已經超過200座。南京有450米的紫峰大廈，廣州東塔的高度也達到了530 米，武漢綠地中心、深圳平安金融中心兩座高樓的高度分別達到了606米和660米。報導說，預計未來3年，中國大陸平均每5天就有一座摩天大樓封頂。而據測算，5年後中國將擁有800座摩天高樓，相當於美國今天的4倍。其中80%將建在經濟不發達的內陸地區。
「摩天樓專業戶」綠地集團透露，地標性建築，不是房地商想做，而是政府想做。
著名學者、中國財經獨立評論家鞏勝利：「中國在搞形象工程，各個城市各個省之間都在抓形象工程，摩天大樓簡單的說，基本上就是說形象工程的產物。 因為黨政官員沒有政績怎麼做下去呢？」
從目前媒體公布的長沙「天空城市」規劃來看，全部建設週期僅為7個月，而現在世界第一高樓—-迪拜的哈利法塔則花了六年才建成。網民對中國摩天大樓的安全擔憂不已。
另外，高層建築的火災救援也是一個無法解決的難題。北京市消防局負責人指出，一旦發生火災，高層逃生的可能性幾乎為零。2010年11月15號，上海靜安區28層高的膠州教師公寓樓發生火災導致至少53人喪生。
中國財經獨立評論家鞏勝利：「摩天大樓啊，它第一首先要設計合理，第二，建築工期一定要保障，比如它水泥凝固度要一定時間，還有鋼筋質量一定要好，那比如這些不能保證，後患是無窮的。」
外資機構研究表明，過去140年來，摩天大樓熱卻是經濟崩潰即將來臨的一個可靠的指標。紐約的克萊斯勒和帝國大廈建成不久，就發生了紐約股市崩盤和1929年經濟大蕭條。近期則是迪拜的那些摩天大樓，都是在迪拜陷入經濟危機之前不久建成的。
今年以來大陸宏觀經濟出現疲軟跡象，似乎對此也有所警示。官方數據顯示，今年1至5月財政收入同比增幅顯著回落。 5月份中國製造業採購經理人指數「PMI」為50.4%，創5個月以來新低﹔生產者物價指數「PPI」同比下跌1.4%，為2009年12月以來最低點。
鞏勝利：「13多億人口的國家它的資本大量的集中在國有企業手中。而且像中國這麼多人，這麼多產業，找不到突破口，集中到某房地產啊，形象工程啊，或者是某個區域的最高建築啊，光集中到這樣方面投資，你想想看，這樣的盲點就相當多相當多了。」
據統計，全球在建的摩天大樓，其中87%在中國。鞏勝利認為，要不了多久，中國的摩天大樓就會顯露致命的弊端，而且它的結局恐怕會驚醒全世界。
採訪/劉惠 編輯/許旻 後製/鍾元
Skyscrapers Herald China’s Economic Crash
Nowadays, Skyscrapers above 500 meter height
have become commonplace in China.
However, cities’ competitiveness to build higher and higher
skyscrapers continued.
The 606-meter-high Wuhan Greenland Centre is expected
to be increased by 30 meters to become China’s tallest building.
Recently Changsha city, Hunan announced building the world’s
tallest skyscraper;50 floors more than Burj Khalifa, Dubai.
People worried that skyscraper fever would lead to
more safety risks.
Experts said that China’s skyscrapers craze
may indicate an economic crash.
More than 200 skyscrapers are now
under construction in China.
Nanjing Zifeng Tower reached 450 meters height,
Guangzhou East Tower will be at 530 meters.
Wuhan Greenland Centre will be at 606 meters and Shenzhen
Ping An Finance Center is expected to be at 660 meters.
Reports said that China would get a new skyscraper
every five days for the next three years.
Research found that in five years time,
China will have 800 skyscrapers.
Equivalent to four times the total number of
skyscrapers in the US.
About 80% of new buildings will be built on
underdeveloped areas in China.
Greenland Group revealed that property businessmen
don’t want to do landmark buildings, but the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) does.
Gong Shengli, China financial independent commentator said:
“China is engaged in image projects in cities and provinces.
Speeded up building of Skyscrapers is due to image projects.
Without remarkable achievements, how the CCP officials
continue to justify their jobs?”
According to reports, Changsha’s Sky City project is due
for completion within 7 months.
However, the world’s tallest building Burj Khalifa in Dubai
took 6 years to complete.
Netizens questioned the safety of China’s skyscrapers.
Fire fighting and rescue in Skyscrapers is another problem.
A Beijing fire station official pointed out that once on fire,
chances of escaping from high-level floors is almost zero.
On Nov.15th 2010, a 28-storey teachers』 apartment
in Jingan District in Shanghai was on fire, 53 died.
Gong Shengli, “For skyscrapers, first, it needs rational design,
second, it must guarantee sufficient time to build well.
For example, cement solidification needs a certain time,
reinforced concrete quality must be good.
If these can’t be achieved, the future problems are countless.”
Research found over last 140 years, a frenzy of skyscrapers
is also a reliable indicator of an impending financial crash.
The Chrysler Building and Empire State Building in New York
were completed just before the Stock Market Crash in 1929.
Recently, those skyscrapers in Dubai were built just before
the Great Recession.
China’s macro-economy tends shows weakness in recent years,
which seems like a warning.
Official statistics show fiscal revenue increase was down,
compared to the January-May period in 2011.
In May, manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Index
(PMI) was 50.4%, the lowest point in the first months of 2012.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 1.4% in May from last year,
a drop to the lowest point since Dec. 2009.
Gong Shengli, “Being a country of 1.3 billion populations,
its capital is gathered in state owned capital.
China has so many citizens and industries and no breakthrough.
It can only concentrate on real estate, image projects or
tallest buildings.
To invest in such way, if you think about it,
such cases are commonplace.”
According to a survey, 87% of global skyscrapers
under construction are in China.
Gong Shengli believes that, soon, China’s skyscrapers
will be reveal fatal flaws. The outcomes perhaps will shock the world.
